I never lived in California. But I had friends who did. They lived in Los Angeles.
About over 20 years ago I flew out to Los Angeles to visit with them for a couple of weeks. They loved living in California and were full of praise for their state. The scenery, the mountains, the weather, the food, Hollywood, the beaches, the ocean, etc. Some of them hinted that I should move to california to live.
I shot down their suggestion. I already was living in a liberal state and I wasn't about to move from one liberal state just to live in another liberal state. If I ever got the chance and resources to move away to another state, it was going to be a more solidly republican/conservative state.
I warned my friends that considering the liberals that controlled their state and city governments, unless conservatives managed to grab majority control, the state (and local city) was going to go on a long, downhill slide in the years to come. They all chuckled at my criticisms and warnings about their state and city, saying how they never want to live anywhere else.
Years go by and all but one of them have long since moved to other states. One to Texas, one to Oregon, etc. The one that stayed in the state at least moved out of Los Angeles to Joshua tree.
There was a time (back in the mid 1990s) when I thought visiting LA was one of the coolest things someone could ever do…now….it’’s sad how much it reminds me of the time our sewer main line cracked and backed up into our house…the similarities are uncanny…same look and smell. So much trash; so many homeless; so much graffiti; unbearable traffic…truly it has become a cesspool …as a San Diego resident, I avoid LA completely if at all possible….And our smarmy, greaseball of a Governor has the audacity to call people who look down on California “Jealous.”
I don’t know what planet he lives on, but my guess is his perception is skewed by the ass kissers who refuse to tell the emporer he has no clothes…and his ties to the deepest pockets and a socialist /equity-driven agenda affirms that he’s doing the right things to ensure those who are not willing to work will receive the same quality of life as those who do actually work by imposing more taxes on the working/middle class families….forget a fancy hot meal at the French Laundry….everyone gets served cold meatloaf (preferably vegan).
Congrats, Gavin! You and all the other far left leaning politicians here have managed to turn what used to be paradise into the number one state people with the means choose to leave.
The blame doesn't belong to the politicians, but firmly to the voters who, year after year, vote for the same policies and disasters.
Liberal tribalism is all that matters to too many Angelenos when it comes to voting. They would never dream of doing something so terrible, so unpalatable, so evil as vote for anyone but the most leftist candidate on the ballot. How else can you explain insane leftist George Gascon beating sane leftist Jackie Lacey?
Los Angeles is the way it is because people here want it to be this way. The ones who hate it all leave, and the ones who stay say "good riddance", and are glad the city is purified by their departure.
It really isn't tribalism - it isn't. It's massive apathy and political disengagement. City Council elections routinely have turnout below 20% of the registered voters, and even mayoralty elections are lucky to get above 30%.
As a result of the complete lack of public engagement in local affairs, local offices are dominated by the mobilized special interests that can reliably generate blocs of votes - large unions, racial "community organizing" interests, etc. Thus, those constituencies are the ones whose concerns the government takes seriously, because those are the ones which actually show up. *sigh*.
My fear is that those who flee for better (redder) places will continue to vote Democrat (blue) and transfer those awful policies they fled to their new homes.
Consider making your OK home your primary residence -- you'll have to get a drivers license and register to vote there -- but that basically exempts you from the confiscatory CA income taxes. It's harder to do this legitimately if you have kids in K-12 school in California, but if you're an empty-nester, this is a no-brainer.
Yeah can’t do that yet… got kids in school and I need to be here for my job… I think you also have to spend a certain amount of time in OK to be a resident but I could be wrong about that
But the voter registration data in Florida suggests the opposite. Consider who would NOT relocate from California to a Red state:
-- Welfare recipients (because the benefits are much higher in CA)
-- Government employees (because the pay/benefits/pensions are MUCH higher in CA)
-- Members of the teachers unions, including community colleges (pension benefits)
-- Criminals (because law enforcement is MUCH more lenient in CA)
-- Many (but not all) other public-employee union members (because laws are far more pro-union in CA); policemen seem to be the primary exception to this group
So that removes a HUGE portion of Dem voters from the relocation calculus, and IMO strongly skews the emigrants to the (political) center-right. We'll see how things play out, but I am cautiously optimistic, which is rather unlike my nature. I think that places like TX, FL, and TN will do fine, and that California, economically, is in the slow process of circling the drain.
I'm not so sure. Please check my earlier comment. I also teach my students that there are 4 major components of how people choose where they live: Home (their housing, in which they want themselves and their belongings to be safe); Work (distance to travel from home to work, which means good transportation network that fits their needs); Shop (nearby places to buy the necessities), and: Play (adequate place to spend their recreational time no matter what the recreation is). People buy/rent homes that balance all 4 of these that closest fits what they want.
So, when they find those four things are no longer in balance, if they can afford it, they move. It doesn't have that much to do with ideology. And many people who move may not understand that their voting had much to do with the 'reasons' they decided to move. Especially the more wealthy. Look at what wealthy former Californians have doe to Colorado, Wyoming, etc.
My sense is the current exodus is primarily conservative voters. In the 1990s-2000s the exodus to Arizona and Nevada was primarily financial (much cheaper housing and emerging job markets) and you certainly see the negative impacts of that migration in the current political situation in those two states. The people we see moving into our area of Tennessee tend to be a high percentage of evangelical conservatives and former liberals who finally saw the results of the policies they used to support. The only liberals I've met here are long-time TN residents who escaped from Nashville or Memphis.
I hope you are correct. BTW, we are considering moving to TN soon, when hubby retires. I am looking around Chattanooga. Is that a good place for retiring?
Then there’s the Red Line, the Blue Line, the Expo Line … “green” mass transit that got built somewhat against the odds, now unusable due to the other Progressive dream of leaving the detached homeless and nihilistic criminal class relatively unmolested. I used to love the Res Line an took it often. No more. It’s carbon emissions for me from my 2000 guzzler from now on.
The current state of the state is horrible, but the current trajectory indicates that things will only get worse. And likely much worse. I escaped with my family last year to middle TN and can only look back in sadness for what Californians have done to themselves. My advice is to get out now, while you still can.
I spent 25+ years teaching grads and undergrads about what kills cities of any size. Basically it's when the people who pay the majority of the taxes (roughly the middle-middle class and the upper-middle class, and maybe part of the lower-upper class) decide that, overall, they're not getting enough return for their tax money.
When more of those people move out than are moving in, the slide into the toilet is beginning. The 'smart' ones are sensitive to the changes that count, and as they move out (and they have the resources to do that just because they want to) they're are first replaced by folks similar to them, but with fewer resources to be taxed.
Then the less attentive people most like them 'notice' who's moving out, and they begin to leave, too. Eventually the middle class tax-base is extremely eroded and the slide moves more rapidly.
This was easily seen in Detroit, but look at any city you can think of that has deteriorated in the past 50 years and you'll see that same pattern.
LA is past the tipping point I think, and I think you're correct that it won't stop.
Good analysis thanks… I imagine it’s happening faster now than ever because people are less trapped in one location by their careers, since most companies have offices in many states and now we can work remotely
I never lived in California. But I had friends who did. They lived in Los Angeles.
About over 20 years ago I flew out to Los Angeles to visit with them for a couple of weeks. They loved living in California and were full of praise for their state. The scenery, the mountains, the weather, the food, Hollywood, the beaches, the ocean, etc. Some of them hinted that I should move to california to live.
I shot down their suggestion. I already was living in a liberal state and I wasn't about to move from one liberal state just to live in another liberal state. If I ever got the chance and resources to move away to another state, it was going to be a more solidly republican/conservative state.
I warned my friends that considering the liberals that controlled their state and city governments, unless conservatives managed to grab majority control, the state (and local city) was going to go on a long, downhill slide in the years to come. They all chuckled at my criticisms and warnings about their state and city, saying how they never want to live anywhere else.
Years go by and all but one of them have long since moved to other states. One to Texas, one to Oregon, etc. The one that stayed in the state at least moved out of Los Angeles to Joshua tree.
Who is right now, my friends?
There was a time (back in the mid 1990s) when I thought visiting LA was one of the coolest things someone could ever do…now….it’’s sad how much it reminds me of the time our sewer main line cracked and backed up into our house…the similarities are uncanny…same look and smell. So much trash; so many homeless; so much graffiti; unbearable traffic…truly it has become a cesspool …as a San Diego resident, I avoid LA completely if at all possible….And our smarmy, greaseball of a Governor has the audacity to call people who look down on California “Jealous.”
I don’t know what planet he lives on, but my guess is his perception is skewed by the ass kissers who refuse to tell the emporer he has no clothes…and his ties to the deepest pockets and a socialist /equity-driven agenda affirms that he’s doing the right things to ensure those who are not willing to work will receive the same quality of life as those who do actually work by imposing more taxes on the working/middle class families….forget a fancy hot meal at the French Laundry….everyone gets served cold meatloaf (preferably vegan).
Congrats, Gavin! You and all the other far left leaning politicians here have managed to turn what used to be paradise into the number one state people with the means choose to leave.
The blame doesn't belong to the politicians, but firmly to the voters who, year after year, vote for the same policies and disasters.
Liberal tribalism is all that matters to too many Angelenos when it comes to voting. They would never dream of doing something so terrible, so unpalatable, so evil as vote for anyone but the most leftist candidate on the ballot. How else can you explain insane leftist George Gascon beating sane leftist Jackie Lacey?
Los Angeles is the way it is because people here want it to be this way. The ones who hate it all leave, and the ones who stay say "good riddance", and are glad the city is purified by their departure.
It really isn't tribalism - it isn't. It's massive apathy and political disengagement. City Council elections routinely have turnout below 20% of the registered voters, and even mayoralty elections are lucky to get above 30%.
As a result of the complete lack of public engagement in local affairs, local offices are dominated by the mobilized special interests that can reliably generate blocs of votes - large unions, racial "community organizing" interests, etc. Thus, those constituencies are the ones whose concerns the government takes seriously, because those are the ones which actually show up. *sigh*.
Yeah pretty much… and the local GOP is a joke…
My fear is that those who flee for better (redder) places will continue to vote Democrat (blue) and transfer those awful policies they fled to their new homes.
Well you have nothing to fear from me, we built a house in OK last year to which we will one day retire.
Given you wrote the original post, I did not intend to imply that I was worried about you. Sorry!
No sweat! I didn’t take it as a dig at me
Consider making your OK home your primary residence -- you'll have to get a drivers license and register to vote there -- but that basically exempts you from the confiscatory CA income taxes. It's harder to do this legitimately if you have kids in K-12 school in California, but if you're an empty-nester, this is a no-brainer.
Yeah can’t do that yet… got kids in school and I need to be here for my job… I think you also have to spend a certain amount of time in OK to be a resident but I could be wrong about that
But the voter registration data in Florida suggests the opposite. Consider who would NOT relocate from California to a Red state:
-- Welfare recipients (because the benefits are much higher in CA)
-- Government employees (because the pay/benefits/pensions are MUCH higher in CA)
-- Members of the teachers unions, including community colleges (pension benefits)
-- Criminals (because law enforcement is MUCH more lenient in CA)
-- Many (but not all) other public-employee union members (because laws are far more pro-union in CA); policemen seem to be the primary exception to this group
So that removes a HUGE portion of Dem voters from the relocation calculus, and IMO strongly skews the emigrants to the (political) center-right. We'll see how things play out, but I am cautiously optimistic, which is rather unlike my nature. I think that places like TX, FL, and TN will do fine, and that California, economically, is in the slow process of circling the drain.
Your cautious optimism has diffused into my direction. Thanks!
Agreed… I think those who leave tend to be the most conservative
I'm not so sure. Please check my earlier comment. I also teach my students that there are 4 major components of how people choose where they live: Home (their housing, in which they want themselves and their belongings to be safe); Work (distance to travel from home to work, which means good transportation network that fits their needs); Shop (nearby places to buy the necessities), and: Play (adequate place to spend their recreational time no matter what the recreation is). People buy/rent homes that balance all 4 of these that closest fits what they want.
So, when they find those four things are no longer in balance, if they can afford it, they move. It doesn't have that much to do with ideology. And many people who move may not understand that their voting had much to do with the 'reasons' they decided to move. Especially the more wealthy. Look at what wealthy former Californians have doe to Colorado, Wyoming, etc.
My sense is the current exodus is primarily conservative voters. In the 1990s-2000s the exodus to Arizona and Nevada was primarily financial (much cheaper housing and emerging job markets) and you certainly see the negative impacts of that migration in the current political situation in those two states. The people we see moving into our area of Tennessee tend to be a high percentage of evangelical conservatives and former liberals who finally saw the results of the policies they used to support. The only liberals I've met here are long-time TN residents who escaped from Nashville or Memphis.
Conservatives may feel the need to move first. But 'liberals' do, too, and they bring their voting habits with them.
Personally, I think you should have to live in a new state for at least 5 years before you can vote in state or local elections at all.
I hope you are correct. BTW, we are considering moving to TN soon, when hubby retires. I am looking around Chattanooga. Is that a good place for retiring?
Then there’s the Red Line, the Blue Line, the Expo Line … “green” mass transit that got built somewhat against the odds, now unusable due to the other Progressive dream of leaving the detached homeless and nihilistic criminal class relatively unmolested. I used to love the Res Line an took it often. No more. It’s carbon emissions for me from my 2000 guzzler from now on.
Yeah all the lines are dirty and dangerous now. Certainly would never s lose my kids to that
The current state of the state is horrible, but the current trajectory indicates that things will only get worse. And likely much worse. I escaped with my family last year to middle TN and can only look back in sadness for what Californians have done to themselves. My advice is to get out now, while you still can.
Stuck here fir a while longer for career reasons but hey, maybe if this writing thing takes off……..
I spent 25+ years teaching grads and undergrads about what kills cities of any size. Basically it's when the people who pay the majority of the taxes (roughly the middle-middle class and the upper-middle class, and maybe part of the lower-upper class) decide that, overall, they're not getting enough return for their tax money.
When more of those people move out than are moving in, the slide into the toilet is beginning. The 'smart' ones are sensitive to the changes that count, and as they move out (and they have the resources to do that just because they want to) they're are first replaced by folks similar to them, but with fewer resources to be taxed.
Then the less attentive people most like them 'notice' who's moving out, and they begin to leave, too. Eventually the middle class tax-base is extremely eroded and the slide moves more rapidly.
This was easily seen in Detroit, but look at any city you can think of that has deteriorated in the past 50 years and you'll see that same pattern.
LA is past the tipping point I think, and I think you're correct that it won't stop.
Good analysis thanks… I imagine it’s happening faster now than ever because people are less trapped in one location by their careers, since most companies have offices in many states and now we can work remotely
Depopulation might be the goal.
Right? The oligarchs want it all to themselves
It will look like a huge Detroit. There are still wealthy enclaves in Detroit.
With much better weather
After living in Southern California for 38 years, I escaped to Texas in 2014. Perhaps the single best decision I have ever made in my life.
Yeah we are here for career reasons but do not plan to retire here